A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
