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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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